DET
46%
@
April 9, 2026
MIN
54%
ML
MIN ML (+116) — 54% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
DET
Jack Flaherty
vs
MIN
Mick Abel
Win Probability
| Source | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Market (implied) | 55.3% | 44.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.6
MIN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| MIN | 5.1% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Kerry Carpenter
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Parker Meadows
- Jake Rogers
- Javier Bรกez
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Luke Keaschall
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
47°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
DET: 1473
MIN: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Bovada | -134 | +112 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Model Analysis
MIN is getting plus-money at +116 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Mick Abel keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Jack Flaherty. Cold temps suppress the bats.