ARI
48%
@
April 10, 2026
PHI
52%
ML
ARI ML (+158) — 48% win, +9.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Mike Soroka
vs
PHI
Jesus Luzardo
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Simulation only | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Elo ratings | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Market (implied) | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.0
PHI avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| PHI | 3.5% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Jose Fernandez
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- J.T. Realmuto
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.18
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1533
PHI: 1494
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +153 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +158 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Mike Soroka keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Jesus Luzardo. The sim projects ARI to plate 5.0 runs — expect some fireworks.