MIN
45%
@
April 10, 2026
TOR
55%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
vs
TOR
Patrick Corbin
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Elo ratings | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Market (implied) | 44.1% | 55.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.0
TOR avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| TOR | 4.6% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Victor Caratini
- Josh Bell
- Matt Wallner
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
TOR
- George Springer
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Nathan Lukes
- Andrés Giménez
- Brandon Valenzuela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1497
TOR: 1527
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Bovada | +118 | -141 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |