NYY
61%
@
April 10, 2026
TBR
39%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Luis Gil
vs
TBR
Steven Matz
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Simulation only | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Elo ratings | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Market (implied) | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
4.8
TBR avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 5.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| TBR | 6.4% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Randal Grichuk
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Chandler Simpson
- Nick Fortes
- Cedric Mullins
- Ben Williamson
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1606
TBR: 1425
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Bovada | -141 | +118 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |