SFG
44%
@
April 10, 2026
BAL
56%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Landen Roupp
vs
BAL
Shane Baz
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Simulation only | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Elo ratings | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| Market (implied) | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.3
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 3.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| BAL | 4.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.15
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 8 mph out
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1447
BAL: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +104 | -124 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |