WSN
42%
@
April 10, 2026
MIL
58%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-120) — 66% win, +11.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Jake Irvin
vs
MIL
Chad Patrick
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Simulation only | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Elo ratings | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Market (implied) | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.5
MIL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 6.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| MIL | 6.6% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
MIL
- Brice Turang
- Garrett Mitchell
- Christian Yelich
- Jake Bauers
- Gary Sánchez
- Luis Rengifo
- Sal Frelick
- David Hamilton
- Joey Ortiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1481
MIL: 1565
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +172 | -205 |
| Bovada | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -207 |
| Caesars | +170 | -205 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -120. The sim gives them a 66% chance of covering — 11.4% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.