Athletics
52%
@
April 10, 2026
NYM
48%
ML
Athletics ML (+132) — 52% win, +7.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
J.T. Ginn
vs
NYM
Clay Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Simulation only | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Elo ratings | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Market (implied) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
4.9
NYM avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| NYM | 5.2% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1505
NYM: 1459
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
The market has Athletics as a +132 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. J.T. Ginn keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Clay Holmes. Cold temps suppress the bats.