BOS
45%
@
April 10, 2026
STL
55%
ML
STL ML (+124) — 56% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Connelly Early
vs
STL
Dustin May
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Simulation only | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Elo ratings | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Market (implied) | 56.8% | 43.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
STL avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.4% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| STL | 6.2% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Caleb Durbin
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Masyn Winn
- Ramón Urías
- Thomas Saggese
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1484
STL: 1554
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Bovada | -148 | +124 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -149 | +123 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +124 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Dustin May keeps STL competitive on the mound against Connelly Early. STL holds a commanding 70-point Elo edge.