CLE
46%
@
April 10, 2026
ATL
54%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Slade Cecconi
vs
ATL
Bryce Elder
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Simulation only | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Elo ratings | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Market (implied) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.7
ATL avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 5.8% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| ATL | 4.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Rhys Hoskins
- Bo Naylor
- CJ Kayfus
- Juan Brito
- Brayan Rocchio
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Dominic Smith
- Michael Harris II
- Mauricio Dubón
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 4 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1577
ATL: 1560
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +114 | -136 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |