CWS
42%
@
April 10, 2026
KCR
58%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Davis Martin
vs
KCR
Kris Bubic
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Simulation only | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Elo ratings | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Market (implied) | 38.4% | 61.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.6
KCR avg runs
5.1
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 5.9% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| KCR | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Lenyn Sosa
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Edgar Quero
- Colson Montgomery
- Tanner Murray
- Luisangel Acuña
- Derek Hill
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1417
KCR: 1436
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 |
| Bovada | +145 | -177 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |