HOU
43%
@
April 10, 2026
SEA
57%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Tatsuya Imai
vs
SEA
Emerson Hancock
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Elo ratings | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Market (implied) | 43.9% | 56.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 8.0% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| SEA | 7.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Joey Loperfido
- Yainer Diaz
- Jake Meyers
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1435
SEA: 1484
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +122 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |