LAA
45%
@
April 10, 2026
CIN
55%
RL
LAA +1.5 (-128) — 63% win, +7.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Jack Kochanowicz
vs
CIN
Chase Burns
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Market (implied) | 37.1% | 62.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
5.3
CIN avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| CIN | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.3
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 11 mph cross
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1465
CIN: 1492
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +155 | -188 |
| BetMGM | +154 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
LAA is getting +1.5 at -128. The sim gives them a 63% chance of covering — 7.6% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.