MIA
54%
@
April 10, 2026
DET
46%
ML
MIA ML (+130) — 54% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Chris Paddack
vs
DET
Keider Montero
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Market (implied) | 42.1% | 57.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.8
DET avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| DET | 4.9% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Graham Pauley
- Javier Sanoja
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Kerry Carpenter
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Zach McKinstry
- Spencer Torkelson
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.01
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1565
DET: 1455
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
MIA is getting plus-money at +130 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Chris Paddack keeps MIA competitive on the mound against Keider Montero. Cold temps suppress the bats.