PIT
39%
@
April 10, 2026
CHC
61%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski
vs
CHC
Shota Imanaga
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Simulation only | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Elo ratings | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Market (implied) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.2
CHC avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 6.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| CHC | 6.3% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Jake Mangum
- Nick Gonzales
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Oneil Cruz
- Konnor Griffin
- Nick Yorke
- Billy Cook
- Henry Davis
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- 673548
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Conforto
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
46°F
Wind: 4 mph out
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1446
CHC: 1533
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +128 | -153 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |