TEX
37%
@
April 10, 2026
LAD
63%
RL
TEX +1.5 (-105) — 57% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Kumar Rocker
vs
LAD
Tyler Glasnow
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Simulation only | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Elo ratings | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| Market (implied) | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.5
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| LAD | 2.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
70°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1532
LAD: 1634
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +190 | -230 |
| Bovada | +195 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +194 | -240 |
| Caesars | +196 | -240 |
Model Analysis
TEX is getting +1.5 at -105. The sim gives them a 57% chance of covering — 7.2% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.