BOS
42%
@
April 11, 2026
STL
58%
ML
STL ML (+120) — 58% win, +9.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Ranger Suarez
vs
STL
Kyle Leahy
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Simulation only | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Elo ratings | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Market (implied) | 56.1% | 43.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
STL avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.7% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| STL | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Caleb Durbin
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Ramón Urías
- José Fermín
- Thomas Saggese
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
75°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1470
STL: 1569
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -138 | +118 |
| Bovada | -138 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +120 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Kyle Leahy keeps STL competitive on the mound against Ranger Suarez. STL holds a commanding 99-point Elo edge.