CLE
43%
@
April 11, 2026
ATL
57%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Parker Messick
vs
ATL
Martin Perez
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Simulation only | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Elo ratings | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Market (implied) | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.2
ATL avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| ATL | 5.5% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Rhys Hoskins
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mauricio Dubón
- Eli White
- Jonah Heim
- Jorge Mateo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 6 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1558
ATL: 1579
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | -106 | -114 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |