LAA
46%
@
April 11, 2026
CIN
54%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
George Klassen
vs
CIN
Brandon Williamson
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Simulation only | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Elo ratings | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Market (implied) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.8
CIN avg runs
5.1
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| CIN | 3.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
- Jeimer Candelario
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
- Yoán Moncada
- Bryce Teodosio
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.3
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 4 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1487
CIN: 1469
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |