MIN
42%
@
April 11, 2026
TOR
58%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Joe Ryan
vs
TOR
Eric Lauer
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Simulation only | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Elo ratings | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Market (implied) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.9
TOR avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| TOR | 4.8% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Victor Caratini
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Tristan Gray
TOR
- George Springer
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Nathan Lukes
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1480
TOR: 1544
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -104 | -116 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |