SFG
48%
@
April 11, 2026
BAL
52%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Logan Webb
vs
BAL
Chris Bassitt
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Elo ratings | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Market (implied) | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.3
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 3.9% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| BAL | 4.9% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.14
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 6 mph in
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1471
BAL: 1482
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |