ARI
52%
@
April 11, 2026
PHI
48%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Brandon Pfaadt
vs
PHI
Taijuan Walker
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Simulation only | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Elo ratings | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Market (implied) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.2
PHI avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.2% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| PHI | 3.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- James McCann
- Alek Thomas
- Tim Tawa
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Brandon Marsh
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Alec Bohm
- Rafael Marchán
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.18
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1552
PHI: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |