Athletics
54%
@
April 11, 2026
NYM
46%
ML
Athletics ML (+139) — 54% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Jacob Lopez
vs
NYM
Kodai Senga
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Simulation only | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Elo ratings | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Market (implied) | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.0
NYM avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.7% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| NYM | 4.7% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Francisco Alvarez
- Tyrone Taylor
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.06
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
58°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1523
NYM: 1441
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +139 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has Athletics as a +139 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Jacob Lopez keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Kodai Senga. Athletics holds a commanding 82-point Elo edge.