CWS
41%
@
April 11, 2026
KCR
59%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Erick Fedde
vs
KCR
Michael Wacha
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Simulation only | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Elo ratings | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Market (implied) | 36.9% | 63.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.7
KCR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 5.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| KCR | 3.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Andrew Benintendi
- Dustin Harris
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
- Tristan Peters
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1400
KCR: 1453
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +161 | -196 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |