HOU
41%
@
April 11, 2026
SEA
59%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Lance McCullers
vs
SEA
Luis Castillo
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| Simulation only | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Elo ratings | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Market (implied) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 7.6% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| SEA | 7.4% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Carlos Correa
- Cam Smith
- Joey Loperfido
- Yainer Diaz
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1420
SEA: 1499
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |