MIA
52%
@
April 11, 2026
DET
48%
ML
MIA ML (+124) — 52% win, +6.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Janson Junk
vs
DET
Casey Mize
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| Simulation only | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Elo ratings | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market (implied) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.9
DET avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.3% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| DET | 5.0% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Graham Pauley
- Javier Sanoja
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kerry Carpenter
- Jake Rogers
- Wenceel Pérez
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.01
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
50°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1541
DET: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +117 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Model Analysis
MIA is getting plus-money at +124 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Janson Junk keeps MIA competitive on the mound against Casey Mize. MIA holds a commanding 62-point Elo edge.