NYY
58%
@
April 11, 2026
TBR
42%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Max Fried
vs
TBR
Nick Martinez
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Simulation only | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Elo ratings | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Market (implied) | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.0
TBR avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 4.6% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| TBR | 6.6% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Ryan Vilade
- Jonathan Aranda
- Junior Caminero
- Ben Williamson
- Jonny DeLuca
- Nick Fortes
- Chandler Simpson
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1578
TBR: 1453
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -194 | +162 |
| Bovada | -197 | +162 |
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| DraftKings | -207 | +169 |
| Caesars | -205 | +170 |