PIT
43%
@
April 11, 2026
CHC
57%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
vs
CHC
Edward Cabrera
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Simulation only | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Elo ratings | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.4
CHC avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 6.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| CHC | 5.5% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Miguel Amaya
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
45°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1472
CHC: 1508
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |