TEX
35%
@
April 11, 2026
LAD
65%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jack Leiter
vs
LAD
Emmet Sheehan
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| Simulation only | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Elo ratings | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Market (implied) | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.3
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| LAD | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Sam Haggerty
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
67°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1519
LAD: 1647
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +157 | -192 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |