WSN
46%
@
April 11, 2026
MIL
54%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-140) — 67% win, +9.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Foster Griffin
vs
MIL
Kyle Harrison
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Simulation only | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Elo ratings | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Market (implied) | 38.5% | 61.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.2
MIL avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 7.2% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| MIL | 7.7% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Curtis Mead
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
MIL
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Luis Rengifo
- Gary Sánchez
- Joey Ortiz
- Luis Matos
- Brandon Lockridge
- Blake Perkins
- David Hamilton
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1507
MIL: 1539
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +145 | -177 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -140. The sim gives them a 67% chance of covering — 9.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.