Athletics
57%
@
April 12, 2026
NYM
43%
ML
Athletics ML (+150) — 57% win, +10.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Aaron Civale
vs
NYM
Freddy Peralta
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Simulation only | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Elo ratings | 62.7% | 37.2% |
| Market (implied) | 38.8% | 61.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
4.8
NYM avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| NYM | 5.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
48°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1539
NYM: 1425
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +146 | -178 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Model Analysis
The market has Athletics as a +150 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Aaron Civale keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Freddy Peralta. Cold temps suppress the bats.