BOS
46%
@
April 12, 2026
STL
54%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Brayan Bello
vs
STL
Andre Pallante
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Simulation only | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Elo ratings | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Market (implied) | 53.6% | 46.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
STL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| STL | 6.6% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Caleb Durbin
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Connor Wong
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Ivรกn Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Thomas Saggese
- Nathan Church
- Yohel Pozo
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
73°F
Wind: 7 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1496
STL: 1543
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -122 | +104 |
| Bovada | -122 | +102 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |