CLE
45%
@
April 12, 2026
ATL
55%
ML
CLE ML (+165) — 45% win, +8.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Tanner Bibee
vs
ATL
Chris Sale
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Simulation only | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Elo ratings | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market (implied) | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.3
ATL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 6.9% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| ATL | 4.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Rhys Hoskins
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Mauricio Dubón
- Dominic Smith
- Jorge Mateo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
81°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1580
ATL: 1557
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Bovada | +160 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |
Model Analysis
The market has CLE as a +165 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Tanner Bibee keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Chris Sale.