HOU
38%
@
April 12, 2026
SEA
62%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Cody Bolton
vs
SEA
Logan Gilbert
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Elo ratings | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Market (implied) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
3.8
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
7.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9.6% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| SEA | 7.1% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Taylor Trammell
- Nick Allen
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1413
SEA: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +139 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |