MIA
48%
@
April 12, 2026
DET
52%
ML
MIA ML (+170) — 48% win, +10.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
vs
DET
Tarik Skubal
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.5% | 52.4% |
| Simulation only | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Elo ratings | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Market (implied) | 35.9% | 64.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.9
DET avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4.7% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| DET | 4.3% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Heriberto Hernández
- Connor Norby
- Xavier Edwards
- Leo Jiménez
- Javier Sanoja
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Kerry Carpenter
- Spencer Torkelson
- Wenceel Pérez
- Jake Rogers
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
77°F
Wind: 12 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1519
DET: 1501
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 |
| Bovada | +165 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIA as a +170 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Sandy Alcantara keeps MIA competitive on the mound against Tarik Skubal. Wind blowing out — balls are carrying.