SFG
44%
@
April 12, 2026
BAL
56%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Adrian Houser
vs
BAL
Cade Povich
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Simulation only | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Elo ratings | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Market (implied) | 45.4% | 54.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.1
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 4.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| BAL | 4.3% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Matt Chapman
- Heliot Ramos
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jerar Encarnacion
- Christian Koss
- Daniel Susac
- Jared Oliva
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.14
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
63°F
Wind: 13 mph out
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1453
BAL: 1500
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +114 | -134 |
| Bovada | +107 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |