TEX
33%
@
April 12, 2026
LAD
67%
ML
LAD ML (-123) — 67% win, +11.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jacob deGrom
vs
LAD
Roki Sasaki
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| Simulation only | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Elo ratings | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| Market (implied) | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.2
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.2% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| LAD | 2.4% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Ezequiel Duran
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.23
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1508
LAD: 1658
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Model Analysis
LAD is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Roki Sasaki toes the rubber against Jacob deGrom. The sim projects LAD to plate 6.0 runs — expect some fireworks.