WSN
48%
@
April 12, 2026
MIL
52%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-115) — 64% win, +9.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Zack Littell
vs
MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Market (implied) | 34.5% | 65.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.4
MIL avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 6.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| MIL | 6.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
MIL
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Christian Yelich
- Garrett Mitchell
- Jake Bauers
- Luis Rengifo
- Sal Frelick
- Blake Perkins
- David Hamilton
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1529
MIL: 1517
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Bovada | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -219 |
| Caesars | +180 | -220 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -115. The sim gives them a 64% chance of covering — 9.8% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.