ARI
48%
@
April 12, 2026
PHI
52%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Zac Gallen
vs
PHI
Andrew Painter
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Simulation only | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Elo ratings | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| Market (implied) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.1
PHI avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| PHI | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- James McCann
- Alek Thomas
- Tim Tawa
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Brandon Marsh
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Alec Bohm
- Rafael Marchán
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.17
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
60°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1530
PHI: 1498
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +121 | -144 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |