CWS
38%
@
April 12, 2026
KCR
62%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Grant Taylor
vs
KCR
Noah Cameron
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Simulation only | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Elo ratings | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Market (implied) | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.6
KCR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 5.9% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| KCR | 4.0% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Edgar Quero
- Lenyn Sosa
- Colson Montgomery
- Luisangel Acuña
- Tanner Murray
- Derek Hill
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1385
KCR: 1468
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +152 | -184 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |