LAA
43%
@
April 12, 2026
CIN
57%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Jose Soriano
vs
CIN
Andrew Abbott
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Elo ratings | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Market (implied) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
5.0
CIN avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4.5% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| CIN | 3.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
- Oswald Peraza
- Vaughn Grissom
- Yoán Moncada
- Travis d'Arnaud
- Bryce Teodosio
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
- P.J. Higgins
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.33
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1468
CIN: 1489
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -111 | -109 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |