MIN
46%
@
April 12, 2026
TOR
54%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Taj Bradley
vs
TOR
Max Scherzer
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Market (implied) | 47.2% | 52.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.8
TOR avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.0% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| TOR | 4.7% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Luke Keaschall
- Josh Bell
- Matt Wallner
- Victor Caratini
- Tristan Gray
- Brooks Lee
- James Outman
TOR
- Davis Schneider
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Nathan Lukes
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1504
TOR: 1519
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | +101 | -121 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |