NYY
55%
@
April 12, 2026
TBR
45%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
vs
TBR
Drew Rasmussen
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Simulation only | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Elo ratings | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Market (implied) | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.0
TBR avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 4.4% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| TBR | 6.4% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Ben Williamson
- Cedric Mullins
- Taylor Walls
- Hunter Feduccia
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1553
TBR: 1478
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -153 | +128 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |