PIT
48%
@
April 12, 2026
CHC
52%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Bubba Chandler
vs
CHC
Jameson Taillon
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Market (implied) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.8
CHC avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 5.5% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| CHC | 5.0% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
77°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1494
CHC: 1485
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |