ARI
50%
@
April 13, 2026
BAL
50%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Ryne Nelson
vs
BAL
Dean Kremer
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Simulation only | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Elo ratings | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Market (implied) | 44.8% | 55.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.1
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 3.8% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| BAL | 4.2% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Alek Thomas
- Jorge Barrosa
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Leody Taveras
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.18
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1549
BAL: 1515
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +110 | -132 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |