CHC
48%
@
April 13, 2026
PHI
52%
ML
CHC ML (+160) — 48% win, +9.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Javier Assad
vs
PHI
Cristopher Sanchez
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.1% | 51.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market (implied) | 37.2% | 62.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
5.5
PHI avg runs
5.4
Avg total
10.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| PHI | 3.4% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Carson Kelly
- Michael Busch
- Dansby Swanson
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Matt Shaw
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Bryson Stott
- J.T. Realmuto
- Alec Bohm
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.22
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1504
PHI: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +156 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
The market has CHC as a +160 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Javier Assad keeps CHC competitive on the mound against Cristopher Sanchez. The sim projects CHC to plate 5.5 runs — expect some fireworks.