CLE
49%
@
April 13, 2026
STL
51%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Gavin Williams
vs
STL
Matthew Liberatore
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Simulation only | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Elo ratings | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market (implied) | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.3
STL avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 7.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| STL | 6.5% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Rhys Hoskins
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Thomas Saggese
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
85°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1561
STL: 1519
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -116 | -104 |
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |