HOU
38%
@
April 13, 2026
SEA
62%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Mike Burrows
vs
SEA
George Kirby
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Elo ratings | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Market (implied) | 38.9% | 61.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 8.2% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| SEA | 6.7% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Carlos Correa
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Taylor Trammell
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1399
SEA: 1519
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Bovada | +146 | -178 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |