LAA
43%
@
April 13, 2026
NYY
57%
RL
LAA +1.5 (-120) — 61% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Yusei Kikuchi
vs
NYY
Will Warren
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Simulation only | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Elo ratings | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Market (implied) | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
5.0
NYY avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4.4% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| NYY | 3.8% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
NYY
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Randal Grichuk
- José Caballero
- Austin Wells
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.18
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
77°F
Wind: 16 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1490
NYY: 1531
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Bovada | +163 | -198 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
LAA is getting +1.5 at -120. The sim gives them a 61% chance of covering — 7.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.