NYM
30%
@
April 13, 2026
LAD
70%
ML
LAD ML (-178) — 70% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
David Peterson
vs
LAD
Justin Wrobleski
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Simulation only | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Elo ratings | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| Market (implied) | 37.6% | 62.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.2
LAD avg runs
5.8
Avg total
11.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| LAD | 3.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jorge Polanco
- Bo Bichette
- Mark Vientos
- Francisco Alvarez
- Carson Benge
- Marcus Semien
- Tyrone Taylor
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Max Muncy
- Miguel Rojas
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.24
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
63°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1410
LAD: 1630
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +159 | -194 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
LAD is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Justin Wrobleski is a big pitching edge over David Peterson. The sim projects LAD to plate 5.8 runs — expect some fireworks.