BOS
48%
@
April 13, 2026
MIN
52%
ML
MIN ML (+144) — 52% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Garrett Crochet
vs
MIN
Bailey Ober
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Simulation only | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Elo ratings | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market (implied) | 60.0% | 40.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.1
MIN avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.1% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| MIN | 4.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Caleb Durbin
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Ryan Kreidler
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1519
MIN: 1526
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -172 | +144 |
| Bovada | -163 | +137 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -171 | +141 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +144 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Bailey Ober keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Garrett Crochet. Wind blowing in — pitchers' day.